Sunday, 18 May 2014

Is Strict Border Control the right Solution to Social Policy Problems?

Too many immigrants of the wrong kind - This is a typical reaction of some people explaining why many things in their societies don’t work well. Is this even remotely true?



In many countries, especially the affluent ones, governments base many social and economic policies on the assumption that efficient and strict immigration controls are vital for the success of social policy. Ironically, rather often, older immigrants in affluent countries tend to be of this opinion even more than the conservative politicians who rule people often by fear mongering. 

The implicit logic of many immigrants is that “once we have come in, the doors should be closed shut for undeserving immigrants”. 

The "undeserving" kind of immigrant may even be people from the exact same ethnic background, group or clan but they sincerely believe that a wide gulf of qualitative suitability differentiates them from the newcomers.



This same logic of strict immigration control is applied also to the matter of poverty eradication; fight against hunger, malnutrition and holoendemic diseases; reducing illiteracy, gender inequality and other common issues plaguing the human race in different parts of the globe. There the strict immigration control logic is applied to mean regulating the number of people entering the planet Earth by birth. Another name for this solution is selective population control.

In USA the Obama administration has already deported more than 2 million people. 

The main groups of people getting deported from USA are:
  • Convicted criminals 55%
  • Immigration fugitives 3%
  • Other removable aliens 4% (Did some hard core fan of MIB invent that term?) 



Who Says Immigration is Bad?

Immigration has immense flash potential and is very potent as a political weapon. Many people and politicians blame too many things on immigrants because they are the others. Blaming the others for our shortcomings has a very long history. Remember the biblical story of the forbidden fruit, Adam blaming Eve, Eve blaming the serpent.


In a December 2011 poll on immigration in the UK, we learnt: 
  • 69% in UK thought immigration affects negatively (32% in Poland, 37% in Sweden, 56% in Italy thought the same)
  • 71% in UK think there are too many immigrants in the country (29% Poles, 46% Swedes and 67% Italians agree)

Attitudes towards immigrants depend on whom you ask (the social class of the respondents).
  • 67% to 26% of UK working-class people would ban all immigration while 49% to 46% of middle class in UK would not do so.


What if There Is No Immigration Control?

Absolute mayhem – warn the powers that be, will result from relaxed immigration control. As UK prime minister Margaret Thatcher said in 1978 “..people are rather afraid that this country might be rather swamped by people with a different culture.”


This attitude is strictly fear-based. The assumption is that they do not value our traditions, systems, institutions and infrastructure and will ruin everything by outright exploitation. Many people in many net immigration countries feel that their old way of life has changed and thus the country has gone to the dogs. Who do they blame? Immigrants of course! This is a very subjective feeling, rather uncomfortably reminiscent of old people sighing that “everything was better before”. Accepting that societies evolve in any case, whether people immigrate or emigrate, and that we need to evolve too is too much for many of us.

We do not know of any functioning society, country or nation state being overrun by unarmed civil immigrants arriving in small numbers in peacetime and destroyed. However, throughout history we have numerous examples of invasions and occupations and post-war scenarios where the indigenous populations have been exterminated by the invaders. Here are some examples of “swamping” á la Thatcher:
  • Anglo-Saxon invaders in 5th century AD used ethnic cleansing to wipe out between 50-100% of the indigenous population and segregated themselves from the native Celtic Britons, restricting intermarriages. Effects can be detected even today. In 2002, BBC reported “English and Welsh are races apart”.  
  • The Native Americans, the First Nation in Canada, the Australian Aboriginals, the Karen people in Burma and the Pygmies (killed and eaten by both sides in the recent Congo Civil War 1998-2003) still live to tell their stories of genocide, extermination and persecution

On the other hand, in the Schengen countries, free mobility among the 26 member states have not caused mayhem through increased immigration. Contrary to massive fear mongering, neither have the Calabrian ‘Ndrangheta taken over the Pizzerias or taxi business in France or Finland nor the Clerkenwell crime syndicate or the Adams family of UK have caused sleepless nights for the police or the people in Norway, Germany or Lithuania.



Who Bears the Ill Effects of Immigration?

It is some of the immigrants and not the host country that bear most of the ill effects of immigration, such as being forced to do the jobs locals don’t do, at much lower salaries and working under bad conditions, and often becoming victims of human trafficking or staying stuck in low-income, low education, low-skill, high crime rate poverty traps. 

Increase in crime rates and social anxiety in the host countries are often directly linked to immigrants as in the case of Sweden, where they are four times more likely to be investigated for violent crimes. 

One counter-argument to liberal immigration is that immigrants just save all their money and then send it home. This deprives the host economy of their spending locally. But many locals also don't spend all their money and save a lot.


But how do we know that, in a globalizing world, the local crime rate would not have changed without those particular immigrants perpetrating those crimes? How do we know that the Swedes would not have been becoming more “criminal” again (as in the past) without immigrants “teaching” them how to? “Viking” Sweden was pretty violent earlier without “immigrants”. In the “nice” welfare state, only in 1975, did Sweden stop force sterilising mothers “deemed unfit”.


So, is it safe to argue that immigration is not bad for the host country and open borders create immense positive contributions and just make a merrier world? This argument, unqualified, can get us into very muddy waters.

In UK, people evaluated the positive contribution of immigrants as follows:  
  • 68% say that food and restaurants have improved – 8% thought otherwise
  • 47% say that entrepreneurial and start-up climate has improved due to immigration – 11% thought they have deteriorated
  • 32% believe that art and literature have gained while 6% see the opposite
  • 36% feel that immigrants have enriched film and music, while 7% feel the opposite

Does "Quality" of Immigrants or Quantity of Immigration Give an Indication of Benefits to the Host Society?


Now, are these “benefits” generated even with modest amounts of immigration or do they require a large critical mass of immigration? Could the correct answer be a mythical British rail explanation (right kind of snow – John Naughtie interview 1991) – quality of immigrants? 

This line of reasoning can get very dangerous as it leads to selective immigration and massive discrimination. Who gets to choose, using what criteria and who sets the criteria. Does this kind of eugenic practice mean good-bye to human rights? Yes, rather too often but not always. In almost all societies, restaurants can choose their customers, but are not accused of trampling human rights.


If not quality of immigration, what about quantity? Would a large enough population burning with a desire to share be enough to generate cultural transmission? The times since Ellis Island have changed. There are too many incipient factors to formulate a simple formula for a society having the “right” kind of immigrants in “right” numbers allowed into a host country so that they begin to create valuable contributions to the host country.

If we were to go by magnitude alone, why has Somali cuisine not spread, in spite of fairly large Somali populations in many countries, but Moroccan or Turkish cuisine has? Why isn't Marmite popular in places where English has become the dominant language? Is there some connection to the uniqueness or differentiating taste of the cuisine before it can spread around? Is a cuisine a cultural “meme” with its own complex logic of spreading around without any connection to immigration volumes?

Does increase of immigration volumes produce directly commensurate added value to the host society beyond an initial surge from tiny numbers?

Only five immigrants from a particular group, growing to ten might cross a start-up threshold and bring novel contributions to the surrounding host society but we cannot say that by increasing the number of immigrants from 1 million to 2 million we would double the positive effects, could we?



Emigration Can Sometimes be Disastrous for the Country the Émigrés leave

Emigration, people going away to other countries, can sometimes be devastating for the country they leave. Brain Drain and loss of income are very real losses to a society. John O’Donovan, the Irish historian explains how in Ireland after WWII, the entire economy was critically dependant on money sent home by the Irish emigrants. The situation is similar to how nowadays remittances by émigrés make up: 
  • 52% of the GDP in Tajikistan
  • 30% in Haiti
  • 25% in Lesotho and 
  • 24% in Nepal. 
Some people argue that if the émigrés didn't leave, they would be investing their earnings in their own country and help it's economy grow. The counter argument is that they left because they found no opportunities and further if those people didn’t leave, they might not have made any money and might have become frustrated instead and become burdens instead.
                                                                                     
Does it mean that the richer countries where these émigrés work and send money home get poorer due to these remittances? No. Social interaction and evolution of societies, cultures and civilization is not a zero-sum game, as the fear mongers would have us believe. Let’s consider Nepal’s case.  About 67% of Nepal’s imports are from India and there is a deficit in the trade balance. The remittances help Nepal pay for these imports and rectify trade deficits. If those Nepalis working in India were forced to stay back in Nepal, they would earn much less or nothing and there would be less money for anything.


Now, the money flowing back into India keeps some parts of the wheels of the Indian economy running and preserves jobs there. This is net gain for the sending country, India and also a win-win situation for both countries.

Photo source:

So strict border controls, without a proper understanding of how freer immigration often contributes to win-win situations for the host and the sending country, may create lose-lose situations and just appease some people’s paranoia only.

Where are the strictest border security controls in the world? They are between:

  • USA and Mexico (about 400 people die each year and 365 000 are detained while trying to cross illegally)
  • North and South Korea (about 3000 people manage to defect to South Korea yearly)

Saturday, 5 April 2014

What was Happening in the World 100 Years Ago in 1914?

Many events in 1914 shaped the lives of people for generations. Some of these events were continuations of a long chain of events, while others were spontaneous game-changers.
  • 1914 saw WWI start, killing 37 million and changing political maps for a short time. Then 5% of casualties in wars were civilians. Today it is 75%.
  • In 1914 the colonial powers “owned” all of Africa except Ethiopia. Now in 2014 - Side effects of globalization, bad politics with MNCs and dictators keep countless millions in the poverty trap.
  • In 1914 Kaiser Wilhelm II of Germany, was aggressively demanding this and that territory for Germany and challenging Rule Britannia. In 2014, it is China challenging Rule Americana and demanding this and that (300 islands and lots of land from about 20 countries.)  
  • Global trade was already very high in 1914. The ratio of world trade to GDP in 1914 was 21% but mostly the imperial powers benefitted. In 2014, it is 32% and still only the superrich benefit most. 
  • Stainless steel knives appeared in shops in UK, USA. Called rustless steel, they were not successful and were called “knives that don’t cut”.
  • Green beer invented. It became a hit, especially for St Patrick’s day.
  • 1st Non-direct blood transfusion – by a Belgian doctor, Albert Hustin.

Now let’s take a look at what was happening in 1914 all around the world:

Russia:
  • Tsar Nicholas II is eager to personally lead Russia into the war. Rasputin warns “If Russia goes to war, it will be the end of the monarchy, of the Romanovs and of Russian institutions.” (Alexandrov, 1966).
  • 175 million people live in the Russian empire in 1914. In 2014, population is 143 million, of which 81% are ethnic Russians.
  • The capital St. Petersburg is renamed Petrograd.
  • Russia is the world’s largest food exporter. In 100 years Russia drops to 157th rank globally but Russians are fatter than ever and others.  
  • Russia’s foreign debt to GNP ratio was 40% in 1914. In 2013, it is 8.4%, compared to 105.7% of USA.
  • Russia ingloriously whacked at the Battle of Tannenberg by Germany. The Second Russian Army (230, 000 soldiers) lose to the Eighth German Army (150,000). Germans move entire army corps by train – precursor to Blitzkrieg. 
Germany
  • Adolf Hitler paints The Alter Hof in Munich in watercolour.


China
  • President Yuan Shi-k’ai dissolves parliament and local self-governing bodies and provincial assemblies and assumes absolute power.
  • Locust plagues in east central China and China joins the Universal Postal Union (the events are not related).
  • Peking’s first Western-style theatre (First Stage) opens.
  • Sun Yat-Sen forms the Chung-hua Ko-ming-tang to replace the Kuomingtang. Members swear oath of allegiance to him personally (like to Adolf Hitler in Nazi Germany).
  • Republic of China, Tibet and Britain agree in the Simla Accord that China will not interfere in the administration of Outer Tibet.
  • Chinese foreign debt is a mindboggling $835 million = $19.417 trillion in today’s money. Compared to $ 16.440 trillion foreign debt of USA today.
  • Chinese population in 1914 is 441 million. Now it is 1.35 billion.
Mexico
  • The Mexican Revolution continues. 
  • Tampico Affair – USA occupies Veracruz cutting supplies from Germany and Mexico severs diplomatic relations with USA.
  • US General Pershing with 5000 soldiers invade Mexico and for 9 months try in vain to capture El Centauro del Norte General Pancho Villa (who felt he was betrayed by USA).

India
  • 315 million people live in India. Now = 1.23 billion.
  • Efforts to “civilize” India by Macaulayism continue. "We must at present do our best to form a class who may be interpreters between us and the millions whom we govern; a class of persons, Indian in blood and colour, but English in taste, in opinions, in morals, and in intellect.”
  • Indian Copyright Regulations come into force. 
  • 60% of India ruled directly by Britain and 40% through alliances with native rulers.
  • Komagata Maru incident - 340 Sikhs, 12 Hindus and 24 Muslims of Indian origin arrived at Burrard Inlet, Vancouver, Canada on May 23, 1914, from the Indian sub-continent on the ship Komagata Maru (Guru Nanak Jahaz). Racist immigration policy denied entry to 352 passengers and forced to depart. 3.5% of Canada are Indo-Canadians in 2014.
  • Hindu-German Conspiracy. Plans for a Pan-Indian rebellion against the British Raj with domestic and foreign help (e.g. German embassy in San Francisco).
  • Gandhi leaves South Africa for the last time after achieving his goals there – abolishing the £3 tax (£200 today) and arrears on former indentured labourers and recognition of Indian marriages.
  • Famous Indians born in 1914: Field Marshall Manekshaw, Baba Amte, G. P. Sippy, Jyoti Basu, Captain Lakshmi Sahgal.
UK
  • In 1914, 44% of global net foreign investment was coming from Britain. France accounted for 20%, Germany 13%.
  • The first colour film showed in Britain – TheWorld, the Flesh and the Devil.  
  • House of Lords rejects women suffrage. All suffragette prisoners released unconditionally. Women get to vote on equal terms as men in 1928.
France
  • Henriette Caillaux, wife of former French Prime Minister Joseph Caillaux shoots Gaston Calmette, the editor of Le Figaro because he threatened to publish Caillaux's love letters to her while he was still married to his first wife. Henriette is later acquitted.
  • France decimates (executes every tenth soldier) a regiment of its Tunisian soldiers for retreating. 
  • Soliciting gay French men during WWI would ask other men “Parlez-vous Allemand?” [Do you speak German?] as homosexuality was associated with Germanness (probably due to the Eulenberg scandal).
  • Algerians no longer need travel permits to France. 300,000 men (1/3rd of Algeria’s male population) were transferred to France for the war efforts. 
  • The 1,7 million people of Algerian ancestry are still considered 2ndclass citizens in France. 
                                                                                                
USA
  • Federal government is much smaller in 1914, spending 2.7% of GDP or $ 1.005 billion (it spends 20.6% of GDP or $ 3.5 trillion now)
  • The world’s first airline St. Petersburg-Tampa Airboat Line opens service with heavier than air aircraft.
  • The Ford Motor Company announces a revolutionary 8 hour at $5/ day wages in place of $2.40 for a 9-hour day. Assembly line for Model T introduced.
  • Mother’s Day proclamation signed by President Woodrow Wilson.
  • Panama Canal opened to ships. 500 workers/mile or 27,609 workers (5600 in the US phase) died in the construction due to Malaria, Yellow Fever, Dysentery, Typhoid and Dengue.
  • Opium and Cocaine were still legal. The Harrison Act of 1914 required anyone exporting, manufacturing or distributing them to register with the Federal Government and pay a tax (it was not a prohibition). In 2014, USA is the world’s largest consumer.
  • Winston Churchill’s (no relative of the British Chruchill) novel The Inside of The Cup was a great success in USA.
Italy
  • Mussolini (Il Duce) denounces orthodox socialism because it did not understand that class distinction had become insignificant compared to national identity and loyalty in WWI. He is promptly expelled from the socialist party.
  • Only Vatican and San Marino still remain outside unified Italy.


Norway

  • Oscar Mathisen sets 500 m skating world record at 43.7 seconds. In 2014 it is 34.03 by Jeremy Wotherspoon of Canada.     

       Sweden
  • 100 years without previously bellicose Sweden fighting a single war as a nation. But Swedes fight on both sides as volunteers and mercenaries. Lars Gyllenhaal and Lennart Westberg's "Swedes at War: Willing Warriors of a Neutral Nation, 1914-1945" details.


Sources: 
Alexandrov, Viktor. The end of the Romanovs. Translated from the French by William Sutcliffe. 1966. Hutchinsons, London.